England take on Croatia (Wembley) in a World Cup Qualifier that will see Croatia back in the stadium where they ended England’s Euro 2008 dreams and effectively ended Steve McClaren’s reign as manager. Since then Fabio Capello has moulded England into a team that’s proving very difficult to beat. England’s seven wins in seven qualifing matches is only matched by Euro Champions Spain and Holland.

England have scored 26 and only conceded 4 in the campaign so far. The latest betting on Betfair (Tues, Sept 8th 2009) has England as the heavy favorites at 1.61 the draw at 3.9 and Croatia at 7.6, England will qualify for South Africa if they beat the Croatians, a draw will also be enough if the Ukraine fail to beat Belarus.

It’s a tricky game to call, England’s record so far in the competition is perfect, but Croatia will be pushing hard, as they need at least a draw to be in with a chance of reaching the World Cup finals via a play-off spot. I expect a cagey first half, this could be a good way to exploit the market with Betfair. My bet will be to back the draw @3.9 and wait for the clock to tick down during the first half, if no goals are scored by the 20-30 minute mark you should be able to lay the draw @ 3.0 or under to guarantee a profit whatever the outcome. You can use the Arb Calculator to work it out the lay stake if you want to get on the bet.