Beware The Bear is an exciting up and coming horse, and over the Christmas period he will bid to win the Welsh National at Chepstow, something that would propel him into the spotlight. Should he win the Welsh National he would then surely be on course for a tilt at the Grand National in April, and being such a young improving horse he would command plenty of respect in the field.
We have seen Beware the Bear once this season he won a competitive handicap at Newcastle earlier this month, over a trip that would be the minimum he requires. He did it well enough that day, even more so when you consider he was outpaced at a crucial time due to the trip, and it was his first run of the season.
With those two key points in mind, he looks to still be well handicapped and with the extra distance he will face in the Welsh National, he is going into a race that suits his needs much better. The big field at a big meeting is something he has faced before, having ran in the four mile chase at the Cheltenham Festival last season, so that is another plus for this young and talented animal.
The three miles and five furlongs the runners have to cover in the Welsh National is a little shorter than the Grand National, but should he win the race then the big event in April would be the obvious long term target. He has already ran over four miles in the past, and stamina is something he looks to have in abundance. The Welsh National looks sure to be ran at a fast pace, like the Grand National is and that is what makes it such an important trial race, the conditions are likely to be very similar. Horses who come out of the Welsh National after winning the race, often find themselves at Aintree and they often drop in price due to their win, so if Beware The Bear does win, expect to see a dramatic drop in his price for him to bag another National in April.
It is this time of year that horses begin to come to the fore in the Grand National betting, and we have already seen Blaklion lay down a marker after winning the Becher Chase. Someone else will do the same over the Christmas period, and Beware the Bear looks to be a horse who would be capable of doing that. He is still young and improving, remains an exciting prospect and the challenge of running over extreme distances looks to be what he needs going forward.
After a good win last time out over a trip that was too short, we should see a fitter, and better prepared horse at Chepstow on December 27th. If that is the case then expect Beware the Bear to go very close in the Welsh National.