England have scored 26 and only conceded 4 in the campaign so far. The latest betting on Betfair (Tues, Sept 8th 2009) has England as the heavy favorites at 1.61 the draw at 3.9 and Croatia at 7.6, England will qualify for South Africa if they beat the Croatians, a draw will also be enough if the Ukraine fail to beat Belarus.

It’s a tricky game to call, England’s record so far in the competition is perfect, but Croatia will be pushing hard, as they need at least a draw to be in with a chance of reaching the World Cup finals via a play-off spot. I expect a cagey first half, this could be a good way to exploit the market with Betfair. My bet will be to back the draw @3.9 and wait for the clock to tick down during the first half, if no goals are scored by the 20-30 minute mark you should be able to lay the draw @ 3.0 or under to guarantee a profit whatever the outcome. You can use the Arb Calculator to work it out the lay stake if you want to get on the bet.

Quick Guide To Using The Calculator

1. First enter the commission you pay on Betfair in the ‘Commission Rate’ box (it’s normally 5%).
2. If you’ve already backed a horse or football match then you should to use the first part of the calculator ~ this works out how much you need to lay the bet for. We’ll be using the first part of the calculator because you should always “Back High ~ Lay Low”
3. Most people back a horse or football team first and then want to lay them at lower odds, this guarantees a profit whatever the outcome.
4. So if you’ve backed the Arsenal match to be under 2.5 goals at 1.92 then enter 1.92 in the ‘Enter the Odds You’ve Backed at:’ box
5. Then enter the amount you’ve bet (your stake) in the ‘Enter your Back Stake’ box (example: 5.50) Don’t use £ or $ symbols just numbers (and decimal points if need).
6. Then enter the odds that you want to lay at, for example: 1.63, do this in the ‘Enter the Odds you want to lay at’ box
7. Now click the ‘Calculate Lay Stake’ button, this will tell you the cash amount you need to lay to guarantee a profit. If you’ve followed the example above the calculator will tell you that you need to Lay £6.47 at odds 1.63 to guarantee a profit of £0.92 (Green Up) whatever happens! (Assumes 5% commission entered)
8. If you’ve placed a lay bet first then use the second part of the calculator ~ this tells you how much you need to back for. It’s works in exactly the same way.

Here’s how the calculator works…

1. Enter your Stake (Example 5.00 don’t use $ or £ symbols), then enter the back odds and the lay odds.
2. Choose whether you have already Backed and now wish to Lay or already Layed and now wish to Back.
3. Click on and move the grey slider pointer along the line where you see 20%, 30%, 40% etc.
4. The output shows the amount you need to stake to either cover your Liability, or your Liability and all of your potential profits.

The idea is that you don’t just back winners but you also ‘Lay’ losers. For example, if you decide to lay a horse in a race you are, in theory, backing that horse to lose the race. Statistically this makes far more sense, in a six horse race there can only be one winner so the chances of picking a loser are far great than your chances of backing a winner.

Here’s an example: You look in the sporting post and see that a real donkey is running in the 3.30 at Newmarket, you login to Betfair, click the tab for Horse Racing, find the Newmarket race, you then see all the runners in the 3.30, next to the horse that you think has got no chance of winning you’ll see two buttons, one to back and one to lay (bet against it winning) you click the lay button, enter your stake and Betfair automatically matches you with another person who thinks this donkey is gonna romp home in style.

If that donkey goes onto win ;-( you pay out his winnings at the odds you’ve agreed and if the horse loses you get to keep the other guys original stake. Simple! You can do the same with football matches also, If you think your team are going to beat Arsenal, then why not ‘Lay’ Arsenal instead of backing your team. By laying Arsenal you’ll still win your bet even if the match ends in a draw!

Free £25 Bet Offer From Betfair
Sign up with Betfair, deposit cash and make a bet up to the value of £25, if the result of your first bet is a loss, your Betfair account will be credited with the free bet up to a value of £25.

Betfair is a brilliant site and if you can get your head around it then you are most definitely on to a winner. The site is clear and easy to navigate around and registration for an account won’t take more than a few minutes. And if you thought Betfair only catered for the horses then you’d be wrong. There is a whole host of games that can have a bet on including Cricket, Rugby, Baseball and Greyhound racing to name but a few.

Betfair has a number of sections designed to help new players along including demo’s and free practise screens so you can really try it out before risking any funds. The site is fun and more importantly very profitable if you give it a try!