Simon Rowlands: Look to the US for Good Friday punting

USA
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Simon Rowlands /
21 April 2011 /
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There is plenty of good racing in the US on Friday

“The feedback…suggests that an increasing number of British and Irish punters are taking racing in the US seriously. If you want to join them, or if you are already one of their number, Good Friday need not seem such a dull betting prospect after all.”

Simon Rowlands explains why Good Friday needn’t be a blank day on the racing front…

I am guessing that whoever came up with the term “Good Friday” to describe the day two days prior to Easter Sunday was not a fan of British or Irish horseracing. April 22 this year shares the dubious distinction with Christmas Day and the two days preceding it of being the only dates to have no racing scheduled in this part of the world.
But fear ye not. For verily there may be an alternative to death by a thousand barbecues or watching Raiders of The Lost Ark (yet again). Countries do not come much more God-fearing and bible-thumping than the USA, and yet religious considerations do not stop the citizens of that nation from staging – and betting on – a large number of race meetings this Friday.

In days gone by, US racing would have been a complete mystery to me and therefore of no interest from a betting point of view. But times change, and so, even, do I. One of my tasks in the last year has been to develop a US form product for Timeform, a product which was launched in November and which can be found on the “form/results” section of the Horse Racing tab on Betfair.

It provides a quick and simple guide to all significant racing in USA and Canada – every horse in every race, every day – along with a star-rating system that has proved to be notably successful (somewhat to my surprise!) at identifying likely winners. The strike-rate for five-star horses is just under 30%.

There is also a US section to the Timeform 1-2-3 tips on this site, a service that has shown more than 40% profit on stakes since it was launched.

The feedback, including from those tuning in to Timeform Radio and who have downloaded podcasts, suggests that an increasing number of British and Irish punters are taking racing in the US seriously. If you want to join them, or if you are already one of their number, Good Friday need not seem such a dull betting prospect after all.

Highlight of the day is the Grade 3 Doubledogdare Stakes at Keeneland, for fillies and mares over 8.5 furlongs on a synthetic surface and due off at 22:23 BST. Timeform ratings have little between: Washington Bridge (rated 113); Denomination, Check The Label and Milwaukee Appeal (all rated 112); and It’s Tea Time (rated 111). However, it should be noted that both Check The Label (the Morning Line favourite at 7/2) and Denomination have small penalties.

Washington Bridge is consistent at this and a higher level on a range of surfaces, having posted ratings of 110 or more on her last four starts. She makes appeal for place as well as win purposes. By contrast, Check The Label has one run which stands out a bit (and against rivals which have not set the world on fire since) and has a layoff to overcome. She looks worth a place lay given the forecast odds.

Aqueduct‘s main race is the one-mile $60k Noble Nashua Stakes at 21:43 BST. Stormy’s Majesty (rated 117) is the class act here, and the Morning Line favourite at 5/2, but he carries a 7 lb penalty and faces stiff opposition from Mine Over Matter (rated 109 and forecast at 3/1) and some other useful types.

The fact that Stormy’s Majesty has been absent since December, along with Mine Over Matter’s notable consistency (has run to over 100 on Timeform ratings on all last six starts), swings things marginally in the favour of the latter in my book.

If the barbecue goes on too long, or if you fall asleep in front of Raiders of The Lost Ark and wake up after midnight, there is always the night meeting at Prairie Meadows, where the $60k Goldfinch Stakes (due off at 03:37 BST) sees another appearance from 95-rated All About Allie. A 10 lb penalty could bring her back to Joe Ja, but not necessarily the others, and a reverse Exacta (go to “Tote” button on Betfair) on horses 1 and 6 could pay dividends.

The incomparable James Willoughby will be punditing on the US action on Timeform Radio on Friday evening – turn on, tune in but, whatever you do, don’t drop out – though I suspect that even he will have called it a day long before Prairie Meadows’ main race comes round!

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