Dubai World Cup Betting: de Kock challenger to put Twice Over to the Sword

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Stephen Molyneux /
22 March 2011 /
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Golden Sword: Won the Chester Vase for Aidan O’Brien and has prospects of landing a significantly more valuable prize for Mike de Kock

“…the manner in which he [Golden Sword] has travelled and quickened in his races this year firmly suggests he is well capable of mixing it at the highest level once more.”

The world’s richest photo took place 12 months ago, Gloria de Campeao’s nose earning him the lion’s share of $10,000,000, and it will come as no surprise were we to see another close finish in this year’s Dubai World Cup such is the quality on show. Stephen Molyneux tries to identify some value against worthy favourite Twice Over.

It’s worth starting with Twice Over, as he clearly deserves his position at the head of the market, even before the late withdrawal of Bold Silvano. Although not beaten far in this race 12 months ago, he was disappointing, never seeming himself both beforehand (got worked up) and in the race itself, and that presumably prompted connections to get him to Dubai earlier and give him a prep-race in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge. It was a most pleasing return, easily disposing of the race-fit pair, Musir and Gitano Hernando in a performance that suggests he could even be better than ever this year. He may need to be in what looks an above-average renewal, but he ticks plenty of the right boxes and it’s not hard to imagine him being on the scene.

Mike de Kock will naturally be disappointed at the late defection of Bold Silvano, but every cloud has a silver lining as they say and his place in the line-up has gone to stablemate, Golden Sword. Stable jockey, Christophe Soumillon, has opted to ride Musir, but that doesn’t detract from the claims of Golden Sword who has been a revelation since switched to tapeta and patient tactics at the Carnival this year. He should really be three out of three in that period, unlucky not to have won on his reappearance before making amends in style on his next two outings, firstly in a handicap off a mark of 105 then comfortably getting the better of Deem in a minor event more recently – it’s worth remembering that Deem went close in the Dubai Sheema Classic last year so the form is very solid. Golden Sword always had plenty of class, trained by Aidan O’Brien to finish fifth to Sea The Stars in the Derby and second to Fame And Glory in the Irish equivalent in 2009, and although this is clearly his stiffest assignment for some time, the manner in which he has travelled and quickened in his races this year firmly suggests he is well capable of mixing it at the highest level once more.

Buena Vista and Cape Blanco are joint top-rated with Timeform and clearly have to be respected, though they will both be running on tapeta for the first time.

Buena Vista is a model of consistency, never out of the first three in her career, and she finished a fine second to Dar Re Mi in the Dubai Sheema Classic 12 months ago. The shorter trip isn’t an issue – indeed she won over 1m on her next start – and she seems more certain than most to give her running. As such, a current price of around [10.0] makes her an attractive each-way proposition.

Cape Blanco will be breaking ground new ground for Ballydoyle in being their first representative in the Dubai World Cup. He was one of the highest rated three-year-olds in training last year, his peak coming when landing the Irish Champion Stakes by over five lengths from Rip Van Winkle. He disappointed in the Arc on his final outing, but he looks sure to be a leading light for his yard this year in all the big middle-distance races and it will be interesting to see how he gets on.

Wherever Buena Vista finishes, it’s not hard to imagine her compatriot Victoire Pisa being too far behind. He got the better of Buena Vista when the pair met in the Arima Kinen (Grade 1) last time but he did hold a tactical advantage that day and it was to Buena Vista’s credit that she got within a nose. A truer reflection of their respective merits came in the Japan Cup with Buena Vista first past the post (subsequently demoted to second) and Victoire Pisa in third, that piece of form firmly suggesting that Buena Vista should come out on top once more.

Gio Ponti went off second favourite in this race 12 months ago when only fourth. He didn’t seem quite at his best then, indeed, beaten at prohibitive odds in the lead up to the race, but it’s fair to say he refound his form upon returning to America, winning the Man O’ War Stakes at Belmont and the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, both Grade 1s. He arguably ran his best race when second to Goldikova on his final outing and a reproduction of any of those efforts will make him a threat.

There doesn’t appear to be anything lurking amongst the rest, the Godolphin challenge notably weak this time around, while Gitano Hernando, who’s recently been sold, hasn’t really got going in Dubai this year, certainly having far more to prove than he did when favourite for this last year.

Recommendations

Back Golden Sword @ [12.0] in the Dubai World Cup
Back Buena Vista @ [10.0] in the Dubai World Cup

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