Cheltenham Festival Specials: Will Irish eyes be smiling?

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Billy Nash /
08 March 2011 /
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Willie Mullins: Spearheads the Irish challenge at this year’s Festival

“…there is always a chance of a surprise result (after all Ireland did beat England in cricket!) so let’s be positive and suggest an interest on the Irish to have 8-9 winners at [3.75]“

Timeform’s Billy Nash tries to locate the value in the Cheltenham Festival ‘Number of Irish-Trained Winners’ market…

Since the Festival was increased to four days in 2005 the number of Irish-trained winners has ranged from a high of ten in 2006 to just half that amount the following season. Things have levelled out a bit since with seven, nine and seven being the respective totals in the last three years. If the market is to be believed than it looks as if it will be a similar story this year with [2.8] the current odds available about 6-7 winners, but let’s dig a little deeper to see if there is better value to be found elsewhere.

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is a race that the Irish have traditionally done very well in down the years, including winning three of the last four renewals. Cue Card and Recession Proof head a formidable home team this time around but there will be a strong Irish challenge, though exactly how strong depends on Willie Mullins’ running plans for his various entries.

At this stage it looks as if Zaidpour, who has been a shade disappointing since winning the Royal Bond in November, will be his main representative here, whilst the likes of Hidden Universe and Shot From The Hip are others that should give a good account.

Just over half an hour later sees the Arkle, in which the Irish will be seeking a third straight win, with Realt Dubh looking the pick of the entries at this stage.

Hurricane Fly holds a leading chance in what promises to be a fascinating renewal of the Champion Hurdle but, without a doubt, the best chance of an Irish-trained winner on the first day comes later on the card, with the Cross-Country Chase and David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Since its inception in 2005, the Irish have dominated the former contest, and with Lacdoudal a notable absentee, it will be very disappointing if we fail to maintain our stranglehold, whilst the latter also looks Ireland’s to lose, dual winner Quevega heading a strong challenge which also includes a trio of very talented novices; namely the unbeaten pair Our Girl Salley and Magen’s Star as well as the much-improved Macville.

Another race I expect the Irish to win this season is the opener on day two, the National Hunt Chase. We have an embarrassment of riches here, with five of the top six in the ante-post market trained in Ireland. Quito de La Roque is already a dual Grade 2 winner over fences and will take plenty of beating if the ground comes up on the soft side, but a sounder surface will suit the Kerry National winner Alfa Beat who is on a six timer.

Oscars Well will be many people’s idea of an Irish banker in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and he will be ably backed up by a strong supporting cast which is likely to include at least one of So Young and Day of A Lifetime, both of whom are short on experience but possess enormous potential.

The RSA Chase often throws up a surprise result but the likes of Bostons Angel and Jessies Dream will warrant the utmost respect.

Master Minded has looked back to something near his very best this season but Big Zeb won’t go down without a fight in the Champion Chase, whilst if Golden Silver can run to the level he is capable of in Ireland than he would also be in with a live chance.

The Irish suffered a rare reverse in the Champion Bumper last year, and with Samain, Lovethehigherlaw and Bold Optimist all ruled out, it is quite possible that we will fail to win it again this year. However, there have been plenty of whispers about Allure of Illusion in recent times and it is hard to know just how strong the British bumper form is.

Day three has been a bit of a disaster for the Irish in recent years and, even though it falls on St. Patrick’s Day this year, one winner is probably the most we can hope for on what looks a particularly tough card.

Mourad, Fiveforthree and Solwhit (if he gets the trip), have each-way prospects in the World Hurdle but it is difficult to envisage one of them lowering the colours of Big Buck’s or Grands Crus.

The Pertemps Final, Kim Muir and Byrne Group Chase are all very difficult handicaps; it is hard to know at this stage just what is going to turn up in the new look Jewson, but the defection of Somersby and injury to Riverside Theatre means that the Ryanair Chase is now wide open. Tranquil Sea disappointed in this last year but is unbeaten in two starts this season and has a good record when fresh.

Unfortunately, the final day may not be much better from an Irish point of view. It is highly unlikely that the Gold Cup will return to these shores for the first time since War of Attrition’s victory in 2006 and our juveniles, with the exception of Unaccompanied, don’t appear to be anything out of the ordinary.

The County Hurdle is just about the only handicap at the Festival that the Irish have done well in in recent times, winning three of the last four, and we are sure to be competitive in it again, Willie Mullins with several credible contenders, including Blackstairmountain, Final Approach and possibly the unexposed Earlson Gray.

We will also be well represented in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle over three miles, but the Foxhunter is probably our last realistic chance of a winner, though our number one candidate, Enda Bolger’s On The Fringe, is still far from certain to take his chance.

In truth, it isn’t easy to find the value in this particular market. It seems reasonable to suggest that at least one of Hurricane Fly, Big Zeb and Tranquil Sea can win one of their respective races, whilst I think the Irish will win the Cross-Country Chase, the four-mile Chase and the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle. Therefore current odds of [7.6] about less than four winners makes little appeal. The Irish will be competitive in all the novices events, including the bumper, and it will be disappointing if we can’t win at least two of these contests. It is unlikely that there will be more than one Irish-trained winner of a handicap, but there is always a chance of a surprise result (after all Ireland did beat England in cricket!) so let’s be positive and suggest an interest on the Irish to have 8-9 winners at [3.75].

Recommendation

Back 8 or 9 winners @ [3.75] in the number of Irish-trained winners at the Cheltenham Festival market.

Cheltenham Festival Specials: Will Irish eyes be smiling?