98 Left in National after First Withdrawal Stage

There were no high profile contenders missing when the March 3 deadline passed for the first withdrawal stage of the John Smith’s Grand National, writes Elliot Slater.

All the market principals remain in the race and, as none of those removed from the race were prominent in the ante-post betting lists, there have been no significant changes to the odds on offer for the Aintree marathon.

Amongst the better known horses whose trainers have declined the challenge of this year’s big race is Kilcrea Castle, quietly fancied in some quarters prior to a poor effort recently in the Racing Post Chase, after which his trainer Emma Lavelle hinted that the National might be a step too far at this stage.

Willie Mullins has removed his Beroni and Irish Invader from the contest but still has eight horses entered, whilst Dessie Hughes has taken out Leopardstown’s Paddy Power Chase runner-up Siegemaster, a 33/1 shot in some Aintree Grand National Free Bet lists.

Taranis is probably the most high profile horse to miss the race, the gelding having returned from a long lay-off to post a tremendous win in Cheltenham’s Argento Chase last month. Another horse to have been quoted as short as 33/1 with some firms, Taranis has also been withdrawn from an intended engagement in the Cheltenham Gold Cup due to lameness and will be out for the rest of the season. Trainer Paul Nicholls hopes that his talented but fragile chaser will be back on duty next term.

Another quality horse who has been difficult to keep sound is Charlie Egerton’s Darkness, another well known name who was absent from the list of 98 horses going forward to the next stage of the Grand National. The Grade 1 winner has had all manner of training difficulties in recent years but on his day is still a quality handicapper.

Parson’s Legacy, Jayo, Glenfinn Captain and One Cool Cookie are amongst others who have not gone forward to the second declaration stage.

Raptor Out To Land Another National For ‘NTD’

Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies (NTD) has won the John Smith’s Grand National twice before with Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002), and this year once again has a number of likely sorts including last year’s Topham Chase winner Irish Raptor, writes Elliot Slater. (more…)

Murphy’s Cerium on National Return Mission

When Colin Tizzard’s Joe Lively won the Grade 1 Feltham Novices’ Chase at Kempton in 2007 there were good reason for believing that he had the potential to be a serious Gold Cup contender. A number of solid efforts followed without winning, and after a spell in the doldrums Joe Lively is now on the way back with Online Sports Betting suggesting he is capable of making his presence felt at Aintree, writes Elliot Slater.

Two graded wins at Cheltenham last winter (one of them over three-and-a-half miles) showed that Joe Lively still has a serious engine and that his stamina for the marathon trip of the John Smith’s Grand National is all but guaranteed. In between his two Cheltenham victories, the Flemensfirth gelding ran a good sixth to Notre Pere in the Welsh Grand National, keeping on nicely at the finish.

Having appeared out of sorts for much of this term, it was good to see Joe Lively showing a bit of his old sparkle when running well to be third to the rejuvenated Taranis in the Grade 2 Argento Chase at Cheltenham at the end of January, an effort that possibly reminded handicapper Phil Smith of his capabilities and probably contributed to him being allotted 11st 6lbs in the Grand National weights.

A horse that has shown throughout his career that he is capable of running well on anything from ‘heavy’ ground to ‘good’ going, Joe Lively will doubtless be partnered by regular pilot Joe Tizzard who has ridden him to all nine of his career successes and knows exactly how to get the best out of a classy horse now nearing the veteran stage.

He is on offer at around 66/1 with Horse Race Betting and would not be without a chance of making the frame.

Venturi Leaps Up Grand National list

Vic Venturi put in a polished performance to land one of Ireland’s principal John Smiths Grand National Trials, the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, and is now amongst the ante-post favourites for the big race in April, writes Elliot Slater.

Winner of the Becher Chase at Aintree earlier this season, Dessie Hughes’ charge had, (like so many other serious Grand National Runners, been kept to hurdles events through the winter whilst the handicapper was working out the weights for the race. Having been allotted 11st 6lbs, Hughes returned the 10-year-old son of Old Vic to fences for the Bobbyjo, and he duly ran out a comfortable 8-length winner from stable companion Black Appalachi, another Grand National candidate who shaped well and also looks bang on course for a return visit to Merseyside.

The prevailing soft ground proved ideal for Vic Venturi, who was never far from the pace and took up the running three out before surging away from his rivals. Similar underfoot conditions for Hughes’ gelding would be a distinct bonus on National day as he clear relishes give in the ground.

Flood reported that his mount had given him a great feel throughout the three-mile-one-furlong contest and that he (Vic Venturi) felt as if he had improved further compared to his winning performance at Aintree in the autumn. For his part, Hughes was delighted with both the winner and the runner-up and is convinced he has two very serious Grand National candidates this time around.

On the back of this performance it came as no surprise that punters were interested to have a wager on Vic Venturi who is now generally on offer at around 14/1 amongst the Grand National Race Horses, a price that could contract further as the big event approaches.

A horse that clearly stays well, jumps soundly and has consistently acquitted himself well when facing quality opposition, Vic Venturi is surely one of Ireland’s leading hopes to bring the John Smith’s Grand National back to the Emerald Isle.

Dark Horse Possol Treading Unique Aintree Path

Henry Daly is not by nature the most optimistic of characters but there is little doubt that the Shropshire handler holds high hopes that his Possol could do something special at Aintree in April, writes Elliot Slater.

Only a seven-year-old, French bred Possol has already proved himself to be a talented performer, last season giving weight and a beating to subsequent Grand National hero Mon Mome in a hot Haydock staying handicap, before running a cracker to be a fine second to Nacarat in Kempton’s Racing Post Trophy. His subsequent disappointing effort in a handicap at the Cheltenham Festival is attributed to him not having sufficient time to recover from his effort at Kempton, and his following outing in the Kilmany Cup at Perth when beating the very useful Ollie Magern, showed that Possol is a very progressive horse.

This term, almost certainly by way of wishing to protect his handicap mark for the John Smith’s Grand National 2010, Daly his campaigned the gelding exclusively over timber and has been rewarded with victories at Ascot and Doncaster, showing that the horse is equally adept over both kinds of obstacles and is clearly in very good heart.

Possol has a touch of class about him, stays very well indeed, goes particularly well on the ‘good’ ground that is so often prevalent at Aintree and has never fallen in 19 racecourse appearances. Of those 19 runs, he has won or been placed fifteen times, proving himself a model of consistency whilst gradually climbing up the handicapping ladder.

Another crack at the Racing Post Chase at the end of February is very much on the cards, whilst Possol also holds an entry in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. It would be a surprise if he were to run in both though, as he seems to need a break between races.

There are good reasons for believing that Possol is a serious contender for Aintree honours, something to consider when placing your Grand National Free Bets.

Paddy Power ~ Bet £10 Get £20

Paddy Power is one of the countries largest online bookmakers and for a limited time is giving all new customers a free bet deal worth £20. The deal is really simple but is does have a few terms and conditions, here are the major ones: Open a new account with Paddy Power, place a single bet of £10 and get another £20 bet for free!! Qualifying bet must be placed at odds of 1/2 or greater, this also applies for combined odds on multiples. Free Bet stake not included in returns. The potential returns on Bet Slip and Bet Receipt indicate returns with stake. Full terms and conditions can be found on the Paddy Power website.

5 Great Reasons To Join Paddy Power

• £20 Free Bet Offer
• Massive Range Of Live Betting Events
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What’s great about Paddy Power is not just the free bet deal, but the shear volume of betting opportunities available. Any sport you care to mention is cover by them: Boxing, Cricket, Racing, Political Bets, Soccer, UFC and even TV shows like ‘The X Factor’ and ‘I’m a Celebrity’. Paddy also gives you the chance to bet as an event is happening, Live betting on Premiership games, APT tour and many more major sporting events.

As a Paddy Power customer you’ll also benefit from superior customer service, the security of dealing with one of the Europe’s most reputable bookmakers and you can take advantage of weekly MoneyBack specials. It’s also worth noting that Paddy Power is one of the fairest bookmakers around, after the Irish football team was controversially knocked out of the world cup play offs by France, Paddy Power refunded all bets on Ireland to win the game!

Ante Post Grand National Runners

It’s still four months until the 2010 Grand National (10th April 2010) but already there are some movements on the runners in the race on the ante post markets. If you’ve got a pre-race favorite already it might be worth tracking the ante post Grand National odds for the next few months.

Every month we will list the updated odds so you can easily see any movements in price. The Chase season is now well and truly underway, already a few big runners seem to be pointed at the National. The bookmakers already have Vic Venturi as the 16/1 favorite, with Niche Market second at 20/1.

Here are the latest odds from Paddy Power Bookmakers. Remember Ante Post rules apply to all bets made now. (In other words, you’ll lose your money if it doesn’t run!)

Vic Venturi ~ 16/1

Niche Market ~ 20/1

Tricky Trickster ~ 28/1

State Of Play ~ 25/1

Black Apalachi ~ 25/1

Comply Or Die ~ 25/1

Character Building ~ 25/1

Big Fella Thanks ~ 25/1

My Will ~ 25/1

Backstage ~ 25/1

Hello Bud ~ 25/1

Don’t Push It ~ 25/1

Gallant Nuit ~ 25/1

Arbor Supreme ~ 25/1

Irish Raptor ~ 33/1

Mon Mome ~ 33/1

Butler’s Cabin ~ 33/1

Notre Pere ~ 33/1

Possol ~ 33/1

Nine De Sivola ~ 33/1

War Of Attrition ~ 33/1

Having seen Niche Market run a few times he wouldn’t be my choice for the second place favorite! Tricky Trickster would seem like a better bet at 28/1 certainly has a great each way shot.

Fergie To Win Gold Cup?

The 2009 Gold Cup final entrants have just been announced today and the field of runners has gone from 37 entrants down to 21 for the race this Saturday (November 28th) the prize for the winner is a cool £200,000! Previous winner Denman takes the top weight along and the shortest odds at 4/1. Jockey Sam Thomas, who rode Denman to that 2007 victory, now partners second favourite ‘What A Friend’ who is joint owned by Manchester United manager Sir Alex Ferguson, it seems the horse has a realistic chance and with Fergie in his corner who would want to bet against it! The Betfair blog has and interesting take on this horse “What A Friend has been trained for this, and his odds of 9.4 are probably spot on, while last year’s fifth My Will could sneak into the frame (6.6 a place) despite the handicapper having done him no favours.

Of the bigger priced runners, former winner, State Of Play, (27.0 win, 4.3 place) runs off the same mark (145) as when staying on strongly to win this event three years ago and is reported in rude health by Evan Williams.”

Arsenal March On

Arsenal’s youngsters are still on track to win the Carling Cup after being matched at 2.38 on Betfair to beat a similarly second-string Liverpool side. Fran Merida was matched at 17.5 to open the scoring and the Gunners were matched at just 1.17 to be leading at half-time before Emiliano Insua hit back for Liverpool. In the end it was a relative veteran, Niklas Bendtner, who scored the winner for the home side in the second-half. At 6.6 they might not be everyone’s idea of a value bet to win the competition given they’re unlikely to change their policy of playing youngsters but their name is certainly in the hat for the next round.

It was far more straightforward for fellow Premier League giants Chelsea and Manchester City. Mark Hughes fielded virtually his best eleven and that was good enough to beat Scunthorpe 5-1 with City never touching any bigger than 1.4 on the exchange. At 6.2 to win the Cup, only Chelsea at 4.1 and Man Utd at 5.8 are shorter. The former had no trouble disposing of  Bolton. They were matched at a high of 1.4 and those who predicted Chelsea would get four by backing the “any unquoted” runner secured a high of 5.6.

Tottenham (7.4), Aston Villa (12.0) Portsmouth (26.0) and Blackburn (27.0) complete the teams who will be in the draw for the quarter-finals.

Christmas Number1 Betting

Slightly unusual angle on the Christmas number one betting by Paddy Power this year, they have formed a market on the Video Games sales chart. With the release of the much awaited Call Of Duty Modern Warfare 2 in November it seems like money for nothing with COD Modern Warfare 2 priced a 13/8. Games that stand an outside chance are: FIFA 10 – 6/1 (already selling well), Wii Fit Plus – 14/1 (could sell well but it’s only avaible on the Wii) and Halo 3: ODST – 10/1 (Has a big online community but is only available on XBox360)

My money will be on Call Of Duty, if I can find the market on Paddy Power

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