Ante-Post Betting: A cast-iron case for Ferro in the Ladbroke Hurdle

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Keith Melrose /
12 December 2010 /
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Fingers crossed it won’t be a repeat of last year’s whiteout at Ascot

“Some of the strongest form lines of the jumps season so far are represented elsewhere in the race, no more so than in the case of For Non Stop, who emerged clear second-best in an intermediate handicap won by Grands Crus at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting in November.”

Although it may only be a listed handicap, the Ladbroke usually proves every bit as competitive as its Grade 3 counterparts around two miles and, at first glance, this year’s renewal looks no different. Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders.

Nicky Henderson is gunning for successive victories in the Ladbroke after Sentry Duty took the honours in 2008 (last year’s meeting lost due to snow) and boasts a strong squad, most notable among them the fast-progressing Aegean Dawn.

Acquired from the now-retired Alners before his reappearance, the lightly-raced five-year-old has taken a couple of competitive events at Cheltenham and Ascot this season with supreme ease, again travelling really well when beating Mille Chief over course and distance last month. He’s now twenty-one pounds higher than for that success, and although that’s probably not insurmountable this is as competitive a race as he’s faced and current odds of [5.8] probably offer limited value.

Henderson’s other two hopes, Oscar Whisky and General Miller, both also warrant mention. The second-named may have something to prove after a flat effort in the Greatwood, but Oscar Whisky has done nothing wrong so far, unbeaten en route to the Cheltenham Festival last season when he finished fourth in the Supreme; he surely must improve from his starting mark, but it certainly couldn’t be ruled out, just five starts into his career after all.

Some of the strongest form lines of the jumps season so far are represented elsewhere in the race, no more so than in the case of For Non Stop, who emerged clear second-best in an intermediate handicap won by Grands Crus at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting in November. Subsequent events have shown that For Non Stop lost nothing in defeat that day, in fact his running Grands Crus to six lengths makes a ten-pound rise look somewhat lenient. Although not certain to be suited by the return to two miles, Nick Williams’ charge is arguably the best-treated in the field and is worth plenty of respect at current odds.

Tocca Ferro is looking to emulate Sentry Duty by winning both of Ascot’s big early-season two-mile handicaps, though unlike that one he’s raced in between, creating a bigger impression if anything when winning the Gerry Feilden at Newbury. That day Emma Lavelle’s gelding accounted for Rebel Dancer, who had been firmly on the up himself, by just over two lengths and with plenty more to spare, the eight-pound rise he’s incurred not necessarily penal.

The aforementioned Mille Chief has always been highly regarded by his powerful yard, but his season was curtailed by injury in 2009/10 and it was only when finishing a clear second to Aegean Dawn at Ascot last time that he suggested he may be ready to hit the heights he’s so long been thought capable of. Raised nine pounds for what was effectively an eleven-length beating of Tuanku, Mille Chief remains with potential to improve and must enter the reckoning.

The fact there simply isn’t enough space to cover a number of horses who would command respect in most handicaps says plenty about how competitive this renewal of the Ladbroke could be. It follows that, highly progressive though Aegean Dawn undoubtedly is, we think the value lies elsewhere, in the form of Tocca Ferro and For Non Stop in particular.

Recommendations

Back For Non Stop @ [16.0]
Back Tocca Ferro @ [8.8]

Ante-Post Betting: A cast-iron case for Ferro in the Ladbroke Hurdle